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周小川稱中國股市調整大致到位引熱議
References
郎咸平：金融大鳄
郎咸平：金融大鱷與國際通脹
Soros: General Theory of Reflexivity
郎咸平談索羅斯
財經郎眼：人民幣貶值疑雲 ( 2 Mar 2015 )
財經郎眼：中國股市會暴跌嗎 ( 15 June 2015 )
財經郎眼：A 股保衛戰 ( 28 July 2015 )
【石Sir手記】圍城 ( 6 Aug 2015 )
【石Sir手記】貶值 ( 13 Aug 2015 )
【石Sir手記】跌完未？( 2 Sept 2015 )
Other References：Classical Economics / Investing Basics / Bubbles and Crashes / Complexity Economics
“王福重經濟學”亞當斯密 ( 第1講 )
“王福重經濟學”國富論 ( 第2講 )
“王福重經濟學”不確定性 ( 第17講 )
郎咸平：資本主義與社會主義改革
郎咸平帶你重讀經典資本論與國富論
*****
Investing Basics: Fundamental Analysis
Investing Basics: Technical Analysis
Efficient Market Hypothesis ( Part One )
Efficient Market Hypothesis: Semi-Strong
and Weak Forms
( Part Two )
Efficient
Market Hypothesis and Behavioral Finance
Hedging Against Uncertainty ( 01：12 Aug 2012 )
Hedging Against Uncertainty ( 02：4 Jan 2013 )
Opinion：Wall
Street ‘experts’ have missed every stock market crash
in 20 years
in 20 years
( Source：Market Watch,
Published：Aug
24, 2015 )
Financial Bubbles, Real Estate Bubbles,
Derivative Bubbles,
and the Financial and Economic Crisis
( 23：30 ~ 37：10 )
and the Financial and Economic Crisis
( 23：30 ~ 37：10 )
Bubbles and Crashes: Theory
Financial
Crisis Observatory：Global Bubble Status Reports
( Source：ETH zurich, from Oct 2014 to Sept 2015 )
http://www.er.ethz.ch/financial-crisis-observatory.html
( Source：ETH zurich, from Oct 2014 to Sept 2015 )
http://www.er.ethz.ch/financial-crisis-observatory.html
Why Do 90% of Stock Traders Fail or Lose
Money？
*****
A Systems Story (Systems Thinking)
Systems Thinking
System Dynamics
Linear Systems Theory
Nonlinearity Overview
Nonlinear Dynamics & Chaos
The Butterfly Effect
Understanding the Complex Systems Around Us
Complexity Economics
Complexity Economics ( Brian Arthur )
正如郎咸平教授所說，索羅斯只是一個著名的炒家，任憑他如何努力想把自己包裝成哲學家，但事與願違，可以說，他在學術界沒有什麼地位，這㸃他自己應該很清楚，看他的文章 < General Theory of Reflexivity > 其中一段是這樣寫的：
回覆刪除" ...I published my first book, The Alchemy of Finance, in 1987...It has been read by most people in the hedge fund industry and it is taught in business schools but the philosophical arguments did not make much of an impression. They were largely dismissed as the conceit of a man who has been successful in business and fancied himself as a philosopher...After all I was dealing with a subject that has been explored by philosophers since time immemorial. What grounds did I have for thinking that I had made a new discovery, especially as nobody else seemed to think so? Undoubtedly the conceptual framework was useful to me personally but it did not seem to be considered equally valuable by others. I had to accept their judgment."
記得在前年3月9日寫過關於『專家』的表現，也引用過 Philip Tetlock 的研究結果，其研究顯示，證券分析師和經濟專家預測的錯誤率顯然是他們自己所估計的好幾倍，不贅 ( Re：https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_E._Tetlock )。我從網上搜集到這些東拼西湊的資料，目的是想指出股市和期貨市場都是很複雜的交易系統，它們有很大程度反應了各種參與者 ( 包括政府和監管機構、投資機構、大小炒家、小投資者等等 ) 的集體判斷和博奕，傳統的經濟理論 ( 包括基本分析和技術分析 ) 已不足以解釋和應付愈來愈複雜的投資/投機行為和工具 ( 例如衍生工具 )，因此引致市場常常失效和做成極大的經濟危機。而新的經濟理論 ( 例如 complexity economics ) 仍未知可以怎樣應用，才能做到可靠和精準的市場預測和有效的調控，使經濟能穩定和健康地發展。事實上，不管用基本分析 ( fundamental analysis ) 或是用技術分析 ( technical analysis ) 或是其他方法，要做出完美的市場預測在邏輯和技術上仍是不可能的。
回覆刪除是調整還是泡沫? 請去 < Financial Crisis Observatory > ( ETH zurich )，看他們提供的報告便知答案。
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